Social Commentary

Fuzzy math

NEWS | EARLY PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN POLLS MAY NOT TELL US MUCH THAT IS USEFUL, BUT SOME NUMBERS ARE REVEALING | EDWARD LEE PITTS

It is understandable if you are confused about the race for the White House. Some headlines say President Obama "has a solid lead" while others declare, "Obama's rating falls."

Things got strange on May 16 when pollsters with the left-leaning New York Times and the right-leaning Fox News appeared to have switched reputations: A CBS News/New York Times poll gave Mitt Romney a 46 percent to 43 percent lead over Obama while a Fox News poll anointed Obama the leader by 7 points.

Confused? Pollster Scott Rasmussen has this advice: "Just glance at today's polls and then move along. Then after Labor Day I would begin to focus more on the horse race numbers." That will be after each party's conventions, after Romney has picked his running mate, and about the time of the debates.

For now, Rasmussen discounts a lot of the current polls because many of them questioned registered voters. The not-so-well-kept secret in American politics is that many registered voters don't exercise their voting right. This skews polls because they measure a bigger pool of voters than will actually show up—and many of those no-shows, according to Rasmussen, are younger voters who lean Democratic.

Four years ago John McCain won the majority of voters over 40 while Obama won the election with the votes of people under 40. Early indicators suggest fewer of these voters, their enthusiasm reduced, will go to the polls this time around, Rasmussen says. Accurate polls survey likely voters, and likely voters are easier to identify closer to Election Day.

But that doesn't mean readers can't pick out interesting nuggets from the present parade of polls. The Fox News poll favorable to Obama also reveals that Romney tops Obama by 6 percentage points among voters who say they are "extremely" interested in the election. Those people probably will turn into the fall's likely voters.

For now, Rasmussen recommends focusing on two numbers that have historically been reliable markers of what to expect in an election: a sitting president's job approval rating and how people feel about the economy.

In 2004 George W. Bush's approval rating stayed anchored around 50 percent, and on Election Day he received just over 50 percent of the vote. Obama's job approval rating this year has hovered consistently in the 46 percent to 48 percent range in several polls. "If his numbers end up there," Rasmussen says, "he will get just under 50 percent of the vote, and that could make it a very close election."

And one place where the divergent New York Times and Fox News polls agree: People think the economy stinks. In the New York Times poll 67 percent said the economy is in bad shape while in the Fox poll just 11 percent rated the economy positively. Both are bad signs for any incumbent. When asked by Fox what they thought Obama did to help the economy, 43 percent said, "Nothing."

Rasmussen says that, as the campaign moves through October, savvy observers should focus on polls in specific swing states as much as national polls.

A May 24 NBC News poll shows that Obama leads in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. But the 12-point lead Obama enjoyed in Ohio in March has been cut in half, while his 17-point March lead in Virginia is now down to just 4 points. Meanwhile in North Carolina, where Obama won by less than 6 points in 2008, the president trails Romney by 8 points. With that state slipping out of reach, Obama may wish he were going somewhere other than Charlotte, N.C., for this fall's Democratic convention.

Roger Erdvig

            Once upon a time, in a little town quite like your own, there lived a boy.  His name was Max.  Max lived with his mother and father and big sister Kathy. 

            For several years now, Max had been begging his parents for a baby brother, but his parents were to old.  Max, only being 6, was to young to understand this. 

            One day while Max was out, playing in the yard, he noticed that there was a new sound in the neighborhood.  It was the barking of a puppy.  Then it hit him, if he couldn’t get a brother then he would ask for a dog.  His parents, feeling bad for not being able to have him a brother, fell through and said that he could get a dog. 

            Now Max wanted the perfect dog, he asked everybody he knew that had a dog, what they liked about it and which they would suggest.  He went to the two pet shops in town and asked them for advice.  But he was very confused with the responses.  The first pet shop said that a golden lab was the best choice, because they were kind, playfull, protective, and were great for a young boy that was full of energy.  While the second one said that a mini schnauzer would better.  They suggested this dog because it was playful in it’s first few years, but would calm down just about the time that the boy would be to busy to play with him all the time.

            Max didn’t know what to do.  He didn’t know if he should believe the first pet shop or the second one.  He decided to go visit his friend that had a lab and his friend that had a schnauzer and see for himself.  He went over and played with each dog and concluded that the lab was the dog for him.

           

I decided to write this story because it is a minimized story of what is going on today with the elections.

            When people look at the news for Romney or Obama, they are getting mixed messages.  Some said that Romney was in the lead in the polls while others said that Obama was.  As a citizen we need to look for our selves at what the different polls are saying.  We need to not fully rely on news and the other media.  

Nicaragua Reflection

    Wow, I don't know where to begin.  The week of April 9-16th has once again been a great experience.  Last year in Puerto was amazing, but this year was even better. 
    One of the things I was struggling with at the end of last year's trip was that it wasn't challenging enough for me.  It didn't take me out of my comfort zone.  My prayer for this year was that I would be taken out of my comfort zone like you take out chinese food.  
    When I first heard that we were going to a place with all girls, I was nervous that I wouldn't have that much to do. But God surprised with an abundance of things to keep us busy.  We didn't spend as much time at the Villa Esperanza as I thought we would.  And when we did it was fun to hang with all the girls.  
    The theme of the week was God making beautiful things out of dust. Over the summer i worked at the school painting and doing maintenance work.  I hated every minute of painting all day, all by myself.  On the 5th day of the trip we spent 9-3 painting church class rooms.  Because of my experience I was able to be a leader and a hey-i-need-some-help-with-this person.
   When we did a park ministry, we had like half an hour before we started.  So us boys went and played soccer.  A little 7yr old boy, named Esteban, played goalie with me and we became fast friends.  When it was time for us to leave he came up to me and asked when I would be coming back.  It was soooo hard for me to have to tell him that I would not be coming back.  Just seeing the disappointment on his face brought tears to my eyes.  But I knew that God would turn his sadness into happiness and that I touched his life in some special way.

Spiritual Emphasis

Truth Project Reflection

Roger Erdvig

Mrs. Landry/ Bible

3/25/11

I really enjoyed this past week of working through the Truth Project. Before this week I have watched it with my family, a little every morning. It was good to watch it a second time and to pick out new things and to reinforce the truths that I had learned before. I do think that cramming it into one week was a little to much to handle. It made me very tired and weary.

My favorite two tours, which have been so since when I first watched it, are Science and History. It is so amazing to me to see how you can see God's handy work in the smallest things. In History we can see how He laid the framework and has His fingerprint in all the laws and governments.

Because we were made in His likeness we can't help but to do things that are aligned with God. But there are also times when man's desire for power and stubbornness get in the way and go against His will. It is disappointing to see how far our nation is straying from God and Is a challenge for our generation to take up the fight of turning it back.

Over all my favorite parts were the small group discussions and Thursday night prayer. I felt that the small groups were most productive because you didn't have all of the big argument people all together. I felt that more people contributed in the smaller groups.   

February Blog

     "What goes around comes around."
This is a statement that many people use, as say a watch-what-you-do sort of saying.  When someone does something bad and then something bad happens to them, people make the rude comment of, "Well, what goes around comes around."  I do agree with this statement in a different way than the world does.  The world looks at it as a supernatural curse of something.  As if it's getting what was coming for you.

The Bible talks about this subject in Galations 6:7.

"Do not be deceived: God cannot be mocked. A man reaps what he sows."

This in the sense that God will bless those who bless others and curse those who curse others.  When we look at the world as say to people that they are getting what they deserve, we are placing our judgement onto them.  It is not our job to judge like a jury and condemn people.  That is God's job.  When we die, we will sat in front of God and he will be the judge and expose the sins we have committed.  If we excepted Jesus into our heart and accepted his forgiveness then we will be saved.  If we reap evil then we will sow eternal death.

So yes I agree with the statement. But I believe that it is not our job to use to condemn people.  We can use it in a loving caring way where we are trying to help them.

January Blog

   This past year has gone by so quickly and it is only picking up pace.  With college up ahead in only 8 months it scares me.
   Last year I felt like I took time for granted.  I'm going to mature this year alot in the way that I use my time.  Instead of messing around, I'm going to use my time wisely and do productive things.  Even with my homework and schoolwork, I haven't always been the most frugal person. (Extra credit for the vocab word.)  With my family I should be spending my time being with them as much as possible before I leave and don't have this opportunity to hang with them, like a coat hanger. (Simile) I want to build the best relationship with them as i can before i leave.
    My quiet times at night is another thing, instead of having a lets-get-this-over-with attitude, I need to be open and totally undistracted.
    God has gifted us with time and it is the most valuable thing we have.  We can either waist it or use it productively.  I pray that He will help me to take advantage of it and use it for the improvement of myself, relationship with others, and my relationship with Him.

Worthy of Sacrifice

   All throughout history there are stories of people dying for others or a certain cause.  Many of our legends or fairy tales are about a certain person laying down his or her life for another.  That person would be considered a hero in my definition.
    I believe that a scenario of when I would lay down my life would be if someone who is unable to defend themselves and is in danger.  As in a woman or a child.  I would lay down my life for any of my family members and actually any defenseless person.  If someone was in danger of getting injured or being attacked i would step into action.  It is easy to say this now, but would it be in the actual situation.  I would also with out question lay my life down for Christ and the spreading of his word.

Blog 2

The story of the three little pigs is one that all children were told as youngsters.  It has been handed down from person to person.  There are many many different versions.

Once upon a time there were three little swine that wanted to go off into the world and build themselves a home.  So they headed out to stake their claims.  The first little pig saw a pile of hay stacked 4 stories high and set himself to work.  The second one came along a pile of sticks and thought that this would be and easy way to build his house and he to set to work.  The third one wasn't as lazy and wanted to be safe.  So he got himself some bricks and as hard as an ox and sweated like a pig to build a strong safe home.
Now there was a hungry wolf roaming along, when he spotted the first pigs house.  He walked up to the door and yelled, "Little pig, little pig let me come in."  With a squeal the pig replied, "Not by the hairs of my chiny chin chin."  So the wolf took in a huge gulp of air and blow down the straw house.  The pig ran shrieking to his brother's stick abode. The wolf, satisfied with his destructive acts, moved on to the next victims house.  "Little pig, little pig let me come in." He taunted.  The pig replied, "Not by the hairs of my chiny chin chin."  So the wolf huffed and puffed and blow down the house of sticks. The two piggies sprinted to their last brother's house and begged to be allowed in.  The wolf calmly strolled up to the last house and rapped on the door.  "Little pigs, little pigs, let me come in." The brothers yelled out, "Not by the hairs of our chiny chin chins."  So for the third time that day he took a huge breath and let lose.  But to his dismay nothing happened.  After several more attempts he scampered away extremely embarrassed.

Smile Face-----figurative language and repetition